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Political Economy of the Clean Energy Transition

Speaker
Alexander Gazmararian - Princeton University
Date
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 1:15pm - 2:30pm PST
Location
Y2E2 299

Abstract
Why is climate change hard to solve? Political barriers stand in the way of policies that could start reducing emissions today. The first part of my talk explains the origins of these political obstacles, and how policymakers can address them. Then, I'll present an empirical paper that estimates the electoral effects of the energy transition in the United States. I examine the shale gas revolution that displaced coal. I argue this intensified the salience of national environmental regulations and increased support for Republican presidential candidates. I analyze presidential elections from 1972 to 2020 with a difference-in-differences design and find that the shale gas shock increased Republican vote share by 4.9 percentage points. Geospatial data, media analysis, and interviews show that voters blamed environmental regulations for their community's decline and that the backlash was more likely to occur where the shale shock was least visible. The attribution of blame for economic dislocation helps to explain electoral behavior in places "left behind," and sheds light on political responses to climate policy.